The 2022 Midterms

rdrr said:
Right? I mean before TFG he was at least a little bit human. I do seem to recall McCain was the one that kept him kinda on respectable side. I didn't agree with McCain a lot, but he did gain my respect, and it was well before the thumbs down vote. Probably somewhere around his concession speech in 2012, when he corrected the crowd and thanked Obama.
Click to expand...
Graham buried his spine, balls, conscience, and soul with McCain.
 
SuperMatt said:
Imagine the look on the coroner’s face if they ever have to exhume McCain’s body… 😂😂😂
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What I don't get about Graham since McCain's passing are the occasional sound bite moments of moral or legal clarity followed very shortly thereafter --by either a vote or further commentary-- that seem to put the lie to whatever he'd said previously.

It goes beyond the normal sort of fencewalking that plenty of pols engage in when their margins are tightening up in their district or state. Every time Graham does that he adds material for some compilation ad that the Ds will lay out for him in a future re-election race. Some of that went on the last time around vs Jaime Harrison of course, but Graham keeps giving the Ds more ammo. Still somehow he manages to rack up more like 56% than a squeakier finish in his re-election bids no matter who's in the WH.
 
I think the last time I saw Graham show some sanity was after his public break with TFG following the riots on Capitol Hill. I thought oh my God, he's finally seeing the light. Shortly after, he was surrounded by a couple dozen Trump fanatics harassing him at Reagan National Airport, all heckling him and calling him a traitor. Not too long after, IIRC, he changed his tune back to licking TFG's butt.

www.politico.com

Trump supporters yell ‘traitor’ to Lindsey Graham at airport

The incident comes after Sen. Lindsey Graham publicly broke with the president following the deadly riots on Capitol Hill.
www.politico.com www.politico.com

 
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shadow puppet said:
Can someone please explain how Walker received so many votes?
Also, what is up with Lindsey's crocodile tears?

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591140610270199808/
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Lol, I just got around to seeing this.

I don’t know if Lindsey Graham knows this or not, but there’s also another black man on the ticket, and that’s Raphael Warnock.

Also, Graham is senator from South Carolina, where his other senator is black conservative Tim Scott, who is definitely not Herschel Walker.

Maybe if they showed a modicum of this type of outrage when it’s an innocent black person gunned down instead of a conservative candidate in a tight race, it would seem more sincere.

Also, when it comes to black conservatives, it’s not the race that’s a problem. I can promise Graham that I would dislike David Clarke just as much if he were white.
 
lizkat said:
Interesting contrast of maps...

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591175192834965515/
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It’s sad that this issue keeps coming up. Right-wing comment sections are filled with people wondering why counties with 10k people get votes counted quickly, and then get mad when it takes longer for counties with 3 million people to count, and that later-tallied vote pushes the democrat over the top.

It’s lost on them that the mail and other early votes now lean dem because the MAGA leader told them not to vote that way.

As for Arizona, these people can get as mad as they want, they don’t get to control how or when the vote is counted. Besides, Lake is losing anyways, what do they expect to happen? The vote stops and Lake is the loser? It’s ironic that the votes being counted as we speak are probably leaning toward voters who reject this kind of nonsense these protesters are pushing for.
 
NBC projection has moved democrats up to 216 seats in their prediction. The GOP is down to 219. That is still with a margin of error plus or minus 4 seats. This is the second or third time NBC has reduced the projected GOP numbers. It’s still a longshot, but there’s an ever-increasing chance for dems to hold the house.
 
GermanSuplex said:
NBC projection has moved democrats up to 216 seats in their prediction. The GOP is down to 219. That is still with a margin of error plus or minus 4 seats. This is the second or third time NBC has reduced the projected GOP numbers. It’s still a longshot, but there’s an ever-increasing chance for dems to hold the house.
Click to expand...

I've been reading it's going to be tough for Ds to lose CA41 and retain control of house, and CA41 looking tougher to keep.

Of course I hope for the gavel to stay with the Dems. If that's not to be, then I'd say the Rs will have a tougher time herding cats this time around than would the Dems with a really skinny margin. The Republicans are totally tearing each other up over their unexpectedly poor showing. It's not clear that the House Freedom Caucus would be able to run the full-on-crazy circus they're hoping for if they take the majority.

Man the redistricting in NYS and a not very astute state party chair for the Dems = unhelpful towards keeping the House. Very disappointing that NY19 as redrawn flipped back to red, for one thing. Sean Maloney losing his redrawn NY17 seat also feels inexcusable (although the GOP threw 10 million dollars into that effort).

Maloney put most of his effort (successfully, looks like!) into trying to ensure against a USA-wide red wave... he has been head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He did lay some of the blame for loss of his own seat on Governor Hochul's very pale showing versus how Biden did in 2020. She won re-election by 6 points, Biden had won NY by 23 points.

MSN

www.msn.com

Anyway those two House seats right there, the redrawn NY17 and 19, are a couple of Dem losses that really mattered this time out the box. Dem Governor Hochul's re-election had negative coattails in some districts in the wake of Republican Zeldin's incessant attacks regarding crime and inflation. There were also undertones of upstate resentment against gun safety measures signed into law by Hochul after the Buffalo supermarket massacre earlier this year. It was unlikely Lee Zeldin could win, even given his name recognition as a downstate congress critter, but he came a whole lot closer than would normally be the case for an R gubernatorial candidate in NYS.
 
Re the Georgia runoff election: It still matters and the Ds better get some get-out-the-vote dough and local talent together. McConnell and Georgia's governor Kemp are teaming up to try to flip this to the R column. Kemp's field machine and Mitch's super PAC...

www.politico.com

McConnell turns to Brian Kemp to help save Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff

The Georgia governor is loaning his get-out-the-vote machine to the McConnell-aligned super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, ahead of the Dec. 6 vote.
www.politico.com www.politico.com

BUT: looks like the Ds took Nevada Senate race, just called now, so the Georgia runoff win would be gravy. Yee haa!
 
lizkat said:
I've been reading it's going to be tough for Ds to lose CA41 and retain control of house, and CA41 looking tougher to keep.

Of course I hope for the gavel to stay with the Dems. If that's not to be, then I'd say the Rs will have a tougher time herding cats this time around than would the Dems with a really skinny margin. The Republicans are totally tearing each other up over their unexpectedly poor showing. It's not clear that the House Freedom Caucus would be able to run the full-on-crazy circus they're hoping for if they take the majority.

Man the redistricting in NYS and a not very astute state party chair for the Dems = unhelpful towards keeping the House. Very disappointing that NY19 as redrawn flipped back to red, for one thing. Sean Maloney losing his redrawn NY17 seat also feels inexcusable (although the GOP threw 10 million dollars into that effort).

Maloney put most of his effort (successfully, looks like!) into trying to ensure against a USA-wide red wave... he has been head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He did lay some of the blame for loss of his own seat on Governor Hochul's very pale showing versus how Biden did in 2020. She won re-election by 6 points, Biden had won NY by 23 points.

MSN

www.msn.com

Anyway those two House seats right there, the redrawn NY17 and 19, are a couple of Dem losses that really mattered this time out the box. Dem Governor Hochul's re-election had negative coattails in some districts in the wake of Republican Zeldin's incessant attacks regarding crime and inflation. There were also undertones of upstate resentment against gun safety measures signed into law by Hochul after the Buffalo supermarket massacre earlier this year. It was unlikely Lee Zeldin could win, even given his name recognition as a downstate congress critter, but he came a whole lot closer than would normally be the case for an R gubernatorial candidate in NYS.
Click to expand...

Yeah, a lot of stuff was working against the dems. But the dems do gerrymander too, and I don’t know how either side prevents it. At least the dems still did much, much better than they had any right to. It’s not that inflation isn’t a hugely important issue, but it should tell republicans that their stance on voting rights and democracy is wrong. Biden was proven correct to give the speech he did about democracy and use that as a driving point the last few months.

As for the thin margin republicans will have if they gain the speakership, republicans are usually less united than democrats, and with only two or three votes making a difference, every member of the freedom caucus is going to be a Manchin or Sinema, on every major issue. I don’t think McCarthy is up to the job, but it will be entertaining to watch.

The Senate being held is a very good thing, though. It was looking dicey for a bit. Hopefully democrats in Georgia remain vigilant, and I think Warnock has a good chance of defeating Walker. Walker fared poorly with Kemp on the ballot. Many people who marked the box for Kemp also marked it for Warnock. It’s hard to envision Walker doing better and getting equal turnout to dems when the senate won’t be at stake and there are no other republicans on the ticket to boost him.
 
Sounds like this is an unexpected win for Democrat Perez.

Prediction from 538
Screen Shot 2022-11-12 at 7.17.33 PM.png


www.seattletimes.com

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Republican Joe Kent in WA House race

The win sends a Democrat to Congress from a district that has long been Republican.
www.seattletimes.com www.seattletimes.com
 
Eric said:
Sounds like this is an unexpected win for Democrat Perez.

Prediction from 538


www.seattletimes.com

Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats Republican Joe Kent in WA House race

The win sends a Democrat to Congress from a district that has long been Republican.
www.seattletimes.com www.seattletimes.com
Click to expand...
Silver got famous for being right one time. Every time he’s wrong, it’s the pollsters’ fault, or it’s an asterisk, or, or, or…

People even told him his projections appeared to be way off, since they shifted inexplicably far to the right in a very short timeframe. He stuck to his flawed model anyway.

Meanwhile, this guy‘s got a model that ignores polling altogether and got every Senate race right except JD Vance. It’s looking like he might be right about the House too, perhaps off by a couple seats, but RCP and 538 were laughably far off.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591624970526154754/

Here’s a tweet of his from the day before the election:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1589574694835220480/
 
SuperMatt said:
Silver got famous for being right one time. Every time he’s wrong, it’s the pollsters’ fault, or it’s an asterisk, or, or, or…

People even told him his projections appeared to be way off, since they shifted inexplicably far to the right in a very short timeframe. He stuck to his flawed model anyway.

Meanwhile, this guy‘s got a model that ignores polling altogether and got every Senate race right except JD Vance. It’s looking like he might be right about the House too, perhaps off by a couple seats, but RCP and 538 were laughably far off.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591624970526154754/

Here’s a tweet of his from the day before the election:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1589574694835220480/
Click to expand...

I don’t get it. Silver wasn’t “wrong.: Saying that there is a 2 in 100 chance of something happening isn’t a prediction that it won’t happen. That’s not what the 538 models do. 538 doesn’t make predictions about what will happen, only about what the odds of something happening are.
 
Cmaier said:
I don’t get it. Silver wasn’t “wrong.: Saying that there is a 2 in 100 chance of something happening isn’t a prediction that it won’t happen. That’s not what the 538 models do. 538 doesn’t make predictions about what will happen, only about what the odds of something happening are.
Click to expand...
The headline of "Kent is clearly favored to win Washington’s 3rd District" makes it sound like a prediction.
 

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