The 2022 Midterms

[Cmaier]

The headline of "Kent is clearly favored to win Washington’s 3rd District" makes it sound like a prediction.

Does it? To me it sounds like a statement of the odds. “It is clearly unlikely that you will win the lottery” is not “you will not win the lottery.” 538 doesn’t make predictions - it’s whole point is simply to mathematically aggregate polls to produce a percentage likelihood of an event, along with error bars.

 

[GermanSuplex]

That race was the reverse of Liz Cheney - republicans picked a Trumper over the Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Trump, and now the district has flipped.

So that makes it even sweeter.

 

[rdrr]

Are we getting blue checkmark punked?

 

[SuperMatt]

I came up with a new model based on polls that says the probability of a coin landing heads is 98%. If the actual results of 435 coin flips turn closer to 50%, I’m not wrong. It’s just a statement of the odds… according to me.

 

[Eric]

Does it? To me it sounds like a statement of the odds. “It is clearly unlikely that you will win the lottery” is not “you will not win the lottery.” 538 doesn’t make predictions - it’s whole point is simply to mathematically aggregate polls to produce a percentage likelihood of an event, along with error bars.

I read it as a straight up prediction, they're adding an opinion based on their data. I also think they've been off enough over the years to lack any credibility in doing so, granted they can only base it on whatever data is available at the time.

 

[lizkat]

Not to derail the current subtopic here, so consider it just a newsflash, and a nice one in advance for 2024 sanity...

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591636557454348289/

 

[SuperMatt]

I read it as a straight up prediction, they're adding an opinion based on their data. I also think they've been off enough over the years to lack any credibility in doing so, granted they can only base it on whatever data is available at the time.

Perhaps we cannot blame Nate Silver. He is dealing with bad data. Polling is just as outdated as Nielsen ratings (Credit on that comparison to Jon Stewart). I recommend the latest episode of his Apple TV show, where he covers polling, among many other aspects of the 2022 midterms.

 

[Edd]

Catherine Cortez Masto defeats Adam Laxalt in Nevada, clinching control of Senate for Democrats

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto has defeated Republican challenger Adam Laxalt in Nevada by the slimmest of margins, ensuring that Democrats will keep control of the U.S. Senate.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Alli]

We got in bed last night just as the news of Cortez Masto’s win started coming in. Husband and I each immediately went to ActBlue and gave Warnock another donation.

With any luck we can also hold the House. Not sure if I can hold my breath until Thursday though. But right now I feel really good.

Anyone here have Andy thoughts on McConnell and his threatened retirement if he doesn’t regain leadership?

 

[Eric]

Perhaps we cannot blame Nate Silver. He is dealing with bad data. Polling is just as outdated as Nielsen ratings (Credit on that comparison to Jon Stewart). I recommend the latest episode of his Apple TV show, where he covers polling, among many other aspects of the 2022 midterms.

Yeah I don't blame anyone personally TBH when it comes to this, I think the biggest issue is it's hard to get actual accurate polling data, especially now that nobody seems to trust the system anymore.

 

[Herdfan]

It’s sad that this issue keeps coming up. Right-wing comment sections are filled with people wondering why counties with 10k people get votes counted quickly, and then get mad when it takes longer for counties with 3 million people to count, and that later-tallied vote pushes the democrat over the top.

Maybe. But FL with 22M people had theirs counted election night.

Nevada has 3.1M and Arizona has 7.3M

 

[Herdfan]

Yeah I don't blame anyone personally TBH when it comes to this, I think the biggest issue is it's hard to get actual accurate polling data, especially now that nobody seems to trust the system anymore.

Plus, it is hard to determine exactly who will show up on election day. They can model all they want, but they can't predict what the people will actually do.

 

[Renzatic]

Plus, it is hard to determine exactly who will show up on election day. They can model all they want, but they can't predict what the people will actually do.

This is true. From what I'm gathering, this election came as such a surprise primarily because a large demographic of people who traditionally don't get off their asses to vote in the midterms, and are thus usually ignored by the pollsters, actually got off their asses to vote in this midterm.

 

[Eric]

IMO people are just dissatisfied all the way around on both sides, it really just came down to turnout which is typically low for the party in power during the midterms. Trump and abortion dogged Republicans this time around, otherwise they could've easily made a clean sweep of it.

 

[Renzatic]

Maybe. But FL with 22M people had theirs counted election night.

Nevada has 3.1M and Arizona has 7.3M

This might be due to the fact of Florida possibly having a more streamlined counting process, and the fact that the margins were pretty clear long before every single vote was counted. If you look at Florida's numbers, all the candidates won by 5 to 25 point margins. There wasn't any ambiguity over who was going to win even hours before their elections were called.

Nevada and Arizona, in contrast, had candidates who were winning and losing by razor thin margins. When you have Congressman A beating Congressman B by a mere 300 votes, and there are still X amount of counties with, say, 15,000 people voting, those last handful of standing ballots out in the weeds really start to count, and it consumes more time to count them.

 

[shadow puppet]

I can't stop smiling.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591620482578661377/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591628143559077889/

 

[lizkat]

I can't stop smiling.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591620482578661377/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1591628143559077889/

Yah, poor Mitch...

​

 

[GermanSuplex]

Maybe. But FL with 22M people had theirs counted election night.

Nevada has 3.1M and Arizona has 7.3M

States run their elections differently, and many of these late votes are being counted under rules enacted by Republican legislatures.

And these are not new issues. It’s not like we just started doing elections like this yesterday. If you demonize mail-in voting and drop boxes, don’t be surprised when those votes favor democrats.

The comments that I’m reading on these news articles from conservatives are not rational, it’s just whining about “shady things” because in many cases, these late votes break for democrats. I’m sorry, but there’s very rational reasons as to why that is.

 

[lizkat]

Maybe. But FL with 22M people had theirs counted election night.

Nevada has 3.1M and Arizona has 7.3M

Well plenty of contests had ENOUGH votes counted to be able to call those races... by end of election night it's often possible to see from reggie data and cast vote data whether or not what's outstanding can still affect the outcome.

Aside from the mechanics of what kind of ballots and how they are cast, processed, counted and reported, all 50 states can have different laws that govern dates and times by which

ballots not cast in person (domestic absentee, military, overseas citizens) must be received,​

mailed and dropped-off ballots can be​

a) opened​

b) processed for eligibility v. registration info​

c) actually counted​

d) officially reported​

Some states allow a curative process if a ballot contains errors like a mismatched signature or detail of ID, where the person may be notified and can then come in person with ID and attempt to prove eligibility or fix the error.

TL;DR it takes time to ensure maximum opportunity to respect the right to vote and also still ensure against fraud.

 

[Edd]

States run their elections differently, and many of these late votes are being counted under rules enacted by Republican legislatures.

And these are not new issues. It’s not like we just started doing elections like this yesterday. If you demonize mail-in voting and drop boxes, don’t be surprised when those votes favor democrats.

The comments that I’m reading on these news articles from conservatives are not rational, it’s just whining about “shady things” because in many cases, these late votes break for democrats. I’m sorry, but there’s very rational reasons as to why that is.

Yup, on one hand, you’d think the GOP would want it to be easy for their base to vote, with mail-in and other methods. But when you consider most of the population doesn’t vote Republican and their politics aren’t popular, douchebags with guns hanging out near drop boxes starts to make sense.