With Friends Like These…

Herdfan

Herdfan

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@Eric

Figured I would move our convo over hear since you seem to want my FoxNews talking points on Manchin. Well, they aren't FoxNews, but according to Newsweek, his approval is 2-1 over his disapproval. So if you think there is a chance he could be primaried, I would love to hear how you think it could happen.

But on the chance it does happen, the Dem would be faced with a state that went Trump 69-30 over Biden.

In the previous Senate race, Shelly Moore-Capito beat her opponent 70-27. Granted her opponent wasn't much of a candidate, but those are some big numbers to overcome.

Do you honestly see any way for this to happen?

www.newsweek.com

Joe Manchin's Approval Nearly Double Biden's In West Virginia

Recent polls show between 57 and 60 percent of West Virginians approve of the moderate Democratic senator, despite Trump winning there by a double-digit margin.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
ronntaylor

ronntaylor

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Herdfan said:
@Eric

Figured I would move our convo over hear since you seem to want my FoxNews talking points on Manchin. Well, they aren't FoxNews, but according to Newsweek, his approval is 2-1 over his disapproval. So if you think there is a chance he could be primaried, I would love to hear how you think it could happen.

But on the chance it does happen, the Dem would be faced with a state that went Trump 69-30 over Biden.

In the previous Senate race, Shelly Moore-Capito beat her opponent 70-27. Granted her opponent wasn't much of a candidate, but those are some big numbers to overcome.

Do you honestly see any way for this to happen?

www.newsweek.com

Joe Manchin's Approval Nearly Double Biden's In West Virginia

Recent polls show between 57 and 60 percent of West Virginians approve of the moderate Democratic senator, despite Trump winning there by a double-digit margin.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
Click to expand...

Support for the Build Back Better (BBB) Act has even higher support among WV voters. Even if you break out individual programs. Majority support among voters overall; and among Dems, Independent/third party, and GOP voters.

I kinda doubt Manchin will run again. He's 74, will be 76 at the end of his current term. Why anyone would want to stick around in politics till their 80s is mind-blogging (looking at a few dozen Congressional members 75+). I think that's one of the reasons why he's pushing his BS opposition to the Dem projects. He's likely in his last term and will probably become a lobbyist or engage with his own business interests immediately after leaving office.
 
SuperMatt

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ronntaylor said:
Support for the Build Back Better (BBB) Act has even higher support among WV voters. Even if you break out individual programs. Majority support among voters overall; and among Dems, Independent/third party, and GOP voters.

I kinda doubt Manchin will run again. He's 74, will be 76 at the end of his current term. Why anyone would want to stick around in politics till their 80s is mind-blogging (looking at a few dozen Congressional members 75+). I think that's one of the reasons why he's pushing his BS opposition to the Dem projects. He's likely in his last term and will probably become a lobbyist or engage with his own business interests immediately after leaving office.
Click to expand...
The reason BBB became such an issue is the filibuster. Once a year, they can pass something like this as “budget reconciliation.” It‘s a carve-out of the filibuster put in to prevent one party shutting down the government completely with a filibuster. Because it can only be done once, they tried to get as much into the bill as possible. Otherwise, they could have broken the bill up into smaller bits and pass the most popular policies. But we know that Republicans are in full obstruction mode so they will vote against popular things (and if they pass anyway, try to take credit for them…)

Manchin got his spotlight, which is what he wanted. The rest of the party gave him 99% of what he supposedly wanted, but he came up with new objections on a daily basis. He is a liar, bad-faith negotiator, and wealthy polluter.
 
ronntaylor

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SuperMatt said:
Otherwise, they could have broken the bill up into smaller bits and pass the most popular policies.
Click to expand...
At this point, I don't think anything can be broken off and put up individually. Sinema and Manchin are full of shit and the GOP will have members in lockstep with leadership: nothing for the Biden Administration no matter how good for the country. With some primaries just 2-3 months away, we have to see how the winds are blowing and if voters will bury their heads in the sand yet again.
 
SuperMatt

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ronntaylor said:
At this point, I don't think anything can be broken off and put up individually. Sinema and Manchin are full of shit and the GOP will have members in lockstep with leadership: nothing for the Biden Administration no matter how good for the country. With some primaries just 2-3 months away, we have to see how the winds are blowing and if voters will bury their heads in the sand yet again.
Click to expand...
I agree with you. Any smaller pieces would have to get 60 votes. No Republicans will give any kind of win to Biden.
 
ronntaylor

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SuperMatt said:
I agree with you. Any smaller pieces would have to get 60 votes. No Republicans will give any kind of win to Biden.
Click to expand...
Well Sinema, Manchin and loudmouths (see Carville et al) tried singing that tired song about bipartisanship. Nothing Biden-Harris proposes will work. McCarthy and McConnell will have the GOP in lockstep. Sinema and Manchin are a lost cause and headaches till the 2024 races. We have to win 2/3 seats this year. Very doable and necessary. But the Dems need to spend money and energy speaking directly to voters now. Dems voters need to get the right Dems elected in favorable districts for the House. The right kind of Dems in purplish states for the Senate this year. That mos def means NC and PA. Those are so winnable that it will hurt if we fall short there. We get 50 Dems out of 52/53 killing the filibuster and we can ignore Sinema and Manchin forever. WE get to 52/53 in the Senate during these midterms and we can set up 2024 nicely. Then WV can be ignored and Manchin, should he run for re-election, can make it official and become a member of the GOP.
 
JayMysteri0

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In case manchin hasn't made it clear what he's about earlier this week...

thehill.com

Manchin joins with Senate GOP to block bill guaranteeing abortion access

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) joined with Senate Republicans on Monday night to oppose legislation codifying the right to an abortion. Senators voted 46-48 to move the bill toward a deb…
thehill.com thehill.com
Click to expand...

I think he made it clear last night

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1498862528276930562/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1498908805609889802/
 
SuperMatt

SuperMatt

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I don’t understand why Joe Manchin continues to label himself as a Democrat. You see above he hangs out with the Republicans during the State of the Union. He opposes every single thing in Biden’s agenda. He regularly goes on Fox News to explain what the other Democrats are doing wrong.

Now he is opposing Biden’s Fed picks just because the other Republicans are doing it. WTF?


The GOP was taking an unprecedented step of refusing to show up for committee meetings in order to block this nominee. Instead of punishing them for their bad behavior, Manchin is rewarding it.

But, the holy and pure filibuster, brought down to us on God-engraved tablets by Moses, is the one norm of the Senate that absolutely CANNOT be violated by Manchin.

Retire to your giant mountain of coal already, Joe.
 
lizkat

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Herdfan said:
Would you feel better if he switched parties? And would it change anything?
Click to expand...

The Dems wouldn't like that, since at the moment we'd be back to having McConnell as Majority Leader in the Senate. And over time, Manchin's legislative voting record is more with Dems than it is with Republicans. The stuff about the filibuster and the recent clash w/ unions over Build Back Better does tend to overshadow that in press coverage.
 
Herdfan

Herdfan

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SuperMatt said:
Why do you think he labels himself as a Democrat?
Click to expand...

Family history. WV used to be deep Blue. They voted Dem no matter what and unions were king makers. His uncle A.James was a long-time Secretary of State in the 70's/80's.

But the state was still fairly social conservative even though they voted Dem. Once the Dems climbed on board the Climate Change train and the war on coal, things began to change. From 1932 though 1996, WV went Dem in the Presidential election all but 3 times (Ike in '56, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84). And now even though they vote deep Red, registration is still fairly close (38R - 34D).
 
SuperMatt

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Herdfan said:
Family history. WV used to be deep Blue. They voted Dem no matter what and unions were king makers. His uncle A.James was a long-time Secretary of State in the 70's/80's.

But the state was still fairly social conservative even though they voted Dem. Once the Dems climbed on board the Climate Change train and the war on coal, things began to change. From 1932 though 1996, WV went Dem in the Presidential election all but 3 times (Ike in '56, Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '84). And now even though they vote deep Red, registration is still fairly close (38R - 34D).
Click to expand...

Thanks for the explanation.

Yes, Manchin is pretty much a climate change denier. I certainly see the reasoning for it with so much coal money coming to the state, and his personal wealth dependent on it.

I can also understand that WV was a very unionized state, therefore almost always going for Democrats. And a few decades ago, there were plenty of conservative Democrats. So I understand the historical perspective on him being a Democrat.

I do not think he has even the slightest interest in the current Democratic Party. The conservative Dems in the past knew that key to their success was giving the Dems some wins. Manchin had Biden’s full attention and could have gotten major concessions on BBB (not getting everything but a lot of what he wanted), but he decided he liked the attention of being the troublemaker more. When he made his final announcement (on Fox), he basically admitted there was no plan he would support. That is NOT being an intelligent member of the party, pulling it to the right a bit in hopes of moderating the progressives. It is full-on sabotage.

So to me the answer of why he is a Democrat is a mix of the history (and the votes associated with it) and the fact that he has a huge amount of power as a functional Republican with a “D” next to his name. If he switched to Republican, he’d be just another face in the crowd.
 

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